The Winning Strategy changes for Gameweek 3

The plan had been to transfer Lukaku, who has no game this week out, and bring Sturridge in. But Sturridge's value has gone up to £9.1m which puts him £01.m out of reach. Very frustrating. So instead I have gone for Lambert as Southampton are playing Norwich and therefore hopefully there is a chance of a few goals. Others considered were Dzecko, but who knows with Man City, Giroud, but will his form continue against Spurs, Welbeck and Agbonlahor.

On the bench, because they are not playing are Bentecke and Ivanovic. They are joined by Lucas as Liverpool are playing Man U and he is the least likely midfielder to score.

As Arsenal are playing Sours I considered replacing Szczesny with Vorm, but as Cardiff are away at West Brom who will be boosted by the return of Anelka and the signing of Scott Sinclair, I decided against.

Zabaleta is captain with Man City playing Hull. Baines is vice-captain.

Wrexhamcelery changes for Gameweek 3

Despite talk of Ba and Torres moving within the Premiership, there remained only one possible transfer which was to include Scott Parker. Steve Sidwell is the man to go.

Borini is dropped to the bench with little prospect of playing. Foster is now a long term injury and so Ruddy will be the keeper for the foreseeable future. Neil Taylor is also out until October which means that either Baines or Evra will play every week. This week I have put Baines as the earlier sub as Everton are playing Cardiff while Man U play Liverpool.

Sturridge is captain again.

Gameweek 2 The Winning Strategy

At 59 points I felt a bit disappointed if only because this squad was outperformed by my ex-Wrexham and Chelsea squad for whom only 10 players contributed. Having said that, now up to a heady 26,631 overall.

My decision to put Vidic and Ivanovic on the bench for the Man U vs Chelsea match backfired because although Vidic got promoted to the first XI due to Lukaku's failure to play, I missed out on 6 points for Ivanovic. And Lucas, rooted to the bench, did better than Snodgrass and that would have been another 2 points. Nevermind, it can't be changed and lessons must be learnt.

The high performers were captain Baines, Walker and Vidic. All defenders and this is not surprising in a low scoring week with 3 0-0 draws. The midfield and strikers didn't do much at all.

With Chelsea not playing next week, and Lukaku not looking like he is in favour, he is facing the axe. I will probably replace him with the in-form Sturridge. Bentecke and Ivanovic will be on the bench obviously as they are not playing. They will not be replaced as I hate giving up cheap points through extra transfers and they will be valuable in the future. The question that remains is who else sits on the bench. It could be Walker or Vidic given the opposition of Arsenal and Livepool respectively.

Gameweek 2 Wrexhamcelery

Excellent score of 64, especially as only 10 players contributed. Well above average and in the top 75000. Current position overall now up to 1,007,634.

Especially good performances from Foster, who is sadly now injured for an undetermined period of time, captain Sturridge and shamefully the two outsiders Baines and Evra. Huth, Johnson and Walters also added extra points.

Going forward, Scott Parker looked good for Fulham on Saturday and in the absence of any other options he will return to the squad in place of Steve Sidwell for Gameweek 3. Hopefully Scott Sinclair will actually play this week and who knows what is happening with Anelka. Borini and Taylor look as if their opportunities will be few and far between this season.

Gameweek 2 Last Minute Tinkering

For the Wrexhamcelery team choices are limited. With Anelka making himself unavailable, the outfield bench of Anelka, Baines and Evra picks itself. The only decision to make was whether to bring Scott Parker back into the squad in place of Steve Sidwell. They are both Fulham players now and both in central midfield. I have opted to stick with Sidwell for now but I suspect Parker to play more once he beds in.

With The Winning Strategy, I was frustrated to find that I had waited too long and Essien's sale value had dropped from £5.5m to £5.4m thus restricting my purchasing power to £8.4m. My first instinct was to go for Lampard, but then I remembered that in Gameweek 3 Chelsea will not be playing. So I opted fro the slightly cheaper Paulinho from Spurs. He looks like a player who has got more points in him than his price suggests. He always seems to be scoring. A decision about trying to squeeze Lampard in (he's already proving a favourite with Mourinho again, and he will score goals) will wait until after Gameweek 3.

I have changed the starting line-up on the basis that I don't think either Chelsea or Man U will keep clean sheets and so I have relegated both Vidic and Ivanovic to the bench, gambling that they won't score. That means Snodgrass and Berbatov start. Lucas stays on the bench.

The Winning Strategy Game Week 1

91 points is well above the average and enough to get me to a position of 93,722 overall.

Excellent performance from my captain Benteke with 36 points. Very good double digit contributions from Ivanovic, Zabeletta, Nolan. A solid clean sheet from Walker and Szczesny delivered 7 points despite letting 3 goals. That is what saving a penalty does for you. Those are the positives.

The negatives start with the failed Essien experiment. No minutes played in two games tells me that he will not be as high up The Special One's favourites as I had hoped and he will be the first casualty. I am basically in the market for a midfield player who will play regularly and will score highly. I have £8.5 million to spend.

Of the others, Walters may be on borrowed time after missing another penalty and suffering from playing for Stoke in 2013. He may be next for the chop.

Vidic and Baines disappointed with 3 points between them, but I am confident that they will come good.

Lukaku and Berbatov also delivered 3 points between them. those are expensive points but they have a good track record and will get another chance.

Snodgrass and Lucas stayed on the bench, but Snodgrass was injured. Lucas had a solid 3.

So once the dust has settled on transfers this week, Essien will be replaced. Candidates are Lampard, Oscar, Toure, Paulinho, and Pienaar.

Wrexhamcelery Gameweek 1

At 48 points the performance was less than average and probably as good as could be expected. Three players, Taylor, Borini and Sinclair did not feature at all which means that Evra and Baines came off the bench but only scored a disappointing 3 points between them.

Foster did as well as Ruddy would have.

Glen Johnson, Joe Cole, Damien Duff, and Daniel Sturridge scored good points.

Steve Sidwell, Nicolas Anelka and Robert Huth were steady.

The big disappointment was Jon Walters who missed another penalty and scored zero as opposed to the 7 he could have had.

The next decision is whether to bring back Scott Parker. That will depend on what happens to Scott Sinclair. If he goes to a club who will play him, then he stays and the choice is any two from Duff and Sidwell, and Parker. I am assuming that Cole and Walters will stay, although I'm starting to have doubts about Walters.

Week 1 Line Up for The Winning Strategy

With Chelsea and Aston Villa playing 2 games in week 1, the players for those clubs are automatic starters (Ivanovic, Essien, Lukaku and Benteke).

Szczesny starts in goal.

Looking at who the other defenders are playing against, I am playing all of them because there is a good chance of clean sheets, which means Zabeleta, Vidic, Baines and Walker all start.

The remaining starters are Nolan and Walters, again chosen by looking at who they are playing.

That means that my subs are Vorm, Snodgrass, Lucas and Berbatov.

Tomorrow the folly of my decisions will be revealed.

Last Minute Change to Wrexhamcelery

With Scott Parker's imminent, but not yet confirmed, move to the Championship, I've decided to jump the gun, and jettison him. The only player I can replace him with is Scott Sinclair who hopefully is going to move to a club where he will get some game time. That said, it is Sinclair who will sit on the bench until he does move, meaning Joe Cole gets a starting place.

The all important Strikers

The problem is simple. I have £27.5m to spend on 3 strikers. Or it sounds simple. It is complicated by the fact that the top most expensive strikers don't score that highly in the points to pounds ratio. But they do score highly in the overall points total. Or so you'd think, but only Van Persie and Suarez do in reality. Best value for money by far are Lambert and Berbatov.

I favour Berbatov over Lambert because I think he will play more and has played in the top flight for longer than Lambert who may get found out this year as he becomes more familiar.

At £7.5m Berbatov is in.

If I were now to go for Van Persie at £14m I would only have £6m left and that would not buy much quality. I would have to be lucky to get a combined points total of around 400, although Weimann of Aston Villa is a tempting wild card. But Van Persie's fitness in the past has been an issue and under Moyes, will he get the right service? I see Van Persie as a gamble and so I'm going to overlook him for now at least. The other factor in my thinking is that Chelsea and Villa have two games in the first week and therefore there is a chance to double up on points. Benteke is the star striker for Villa. I think he is expensive at £9m because of the lack of quality players around him, but for the first week he looks like the right choice and so he is in.

The problem comes with who will be playing up front for Chelsea. Will Mourinho go for the erratic Torres, the youthful but still raw Lukaku, the disappointing Ba, or something different like Mata or Schurle. Who knows? Probably a combination of all these with Moses thrown in as well. Realistically the choice comes down to Torres or Lukaku. Both will play some part in both games. The opponents are Hull and Villa. It's a coin toss at this stage. I'll go Lukaku because he is more Drogba-like and will link play up better than Torres. Lukaku is in.

All this may change after week 1!

And I still have £3m in the bank for a bit of flexible wheeling and dealing in the next few weeks. 

Midfield is tricky

The big secret about midfield players is that they don't score that highly relative to their price. Even the big ticket players like Gareth Bale. They may look an attractive prospect, but you have to be wary.

If you look carefully enough amongst the cheaper players you can find overachievers like Robert Snodgrass of Norwich whose points to pounds ratio is higher than Bale's.

And then there are the surprise packages like Michu of Swansea who appeared out of nowhere, played as a striker and scored loads of goals. Is there a hidden gem amongst the promoted teams or among the newly imported players or a young player who is about to make a big breakthrough.

My instinct is to avoid expensive players who play for the big clubs. Big clubs tend to rotate their midfield players. Trying to find someone who will play every game in midfield is becoming increasingly difficult. Mourinho will rotate the midfield at Chelsea. Wenger will be more stable at Arsenal. Moyes at Man Utd, Pellegrini at Man City are unknown quantities and may take time to find their best eleven. Rodgers and Villas-Boas are also still looking for their magic formula at Liverpool and Spurs.

So I will be looking at the next tier for players who are big fish in small ponds, who will play regularly and who have a record of scoring and a good points to pounds ratio. But at the same time looking for the surprise package amongst the newbies. And taking into account the fact that Chelsea and Aston Villa have 2 games in the first week.

And I want to sick to the £33m budget that comes from midfield being one third of the squad.

First up Snodgrass. He may not be as successful as last season, but he's not to expensive at £6.5 and he's worth a place.

Also at £6.5m is Jonathan Walters of Stoke. If he had not score 2 own goals and missed a penalty against Chelsea he would have rivalled Snodgrass. He's in.

In a similar vein, Kevin Nolan at West Ham will always score goals and Allardyce will play him. At £7m, he's in.

I want a Chelsea player and Michael Essien is attractively priced and is a Mourinho favourite. I think he will play and at £5.5m he is a snip.

I wanted a Villa player because of the two games, but I have no idea who Lambert is likely to play. At Liverpool however, Lucas is a bargain and is likely to play a lot of games if he can avoid injury. At £4.5m, he's in.

That makes a midfield of Snodgrass, Walters, Nolan, Essien and Lucas. Not the most exotic quintet, but at a cost of £30m it allows me an extra £3m to spend on strikers and should give a reasonable points return. It is a gamble not having a big name like Bale or Mata or Hazard, but that is the gamble I'm taking. The midfield is tricky and doesn't give value for money.

The Defence

When picking defenders it is hard to look beyond Leighton Baines of Everton. His points to pounds ratio means that he is more valuable than all the midfield player and most of the strikers, especially the top ones. Basically he is too good to overlook with his goals from free kicks and penalties and his assists. The one word of caution is what impact will the change of manager from Moyes to Martinez have on his performance. It's worth a gamble though, so Baines is in.

You need 5 defenders. That is one third of the squad. If you were to spend one third of the budget, that would be approximately £33m. That is an average of £6.6m per player. Baines is £7.5 which reduces the average for the remaining 4 to £6.3, which in defender terms is pretty good, especially as defenders on the whole give a better return on investment than Midfield players. In general it is the defenders from the top teams that give the best value. I don't want more than one defender from any ones team because I don't want to use up a whole team's allocation of 3 on defence, and when a team does have a bad day the impact will be multiplied. As I already have an Arsenal goalkeeper I am excluding any Arsenal defenders. That leaves Chelsea, Man City, Man Utd, and Spurs.

For Chelsea, Ivanovic stands out as the best value. There is a question mark as to whether Mourinho will allow him the same freedom to get forward, but that more cautious approach may mean fewer goals conceded. He's in.

The same goes for Zabaleta at Man City. He's in.

At Man Utd, Vidic did not score well last season because of injury. If he stays fit this season he will score more highly than Evra and Rafael. He's in.

For Spurs, Vertongen and Walker give similar returns but there is a doubt over Vertongen at the start of the season, so Walker is in.

So my 5 defenders are Baines, Ivanovic, Zabaleta, Vidic and Walker. The total cost is £32m thus saving £1m to use elsewhere.

But if money gets tight, one of them may have to be sacrificed for a cheaper model. One option that I considered, and may return to, is to start with an Aston Villa defender because they have two games in the first week and that could mean extra points. But as those games are against Arsenal and Chelsea I decided against it.

Picking the goalkeeper

There are lots of theories about how to choose you goalkeeper. Goalkeepers score points by playing, keeping clean sheets, and making saves (especially penalties) with the odd assist and even odder goal. But they lose points for conceding goals (as well as yellow and red cards).

There is one school of thought that suggests that having a keeper who doesn't play is a good idea. But I don't hold with that. I can't see how having a player on the pitch who is not going to contribute anything is in anyway sensible.  I my view therefore, you want a keeper who is going to play every game. But do you want a keeper who has a tight defence in front of them and therefore doesn't get the opportunity to make that many saves but might get more clean sheets, or one that has a more porous defence and will be called upon more frequently. Concede 1 goal and you lose the 4 points for the clean sheet. Concede 2 and it's an additional point lost. 4 will mean another 1 lost. 4 is unlikely. 3 counts the same as 2. But 1 point is won for every 3 saves. There is a fine balance.

If you look at points you could just decide to go for the top scoring keeper for last season, Joe Hart of Man City. He is also the most expensive keeper along with Petr Cech of Chelsea. But if you look at points per million pounds, Asmir Begovic of Stoke is better value along with Juski Jaaskaleinen of West Ham. And let's not forget the surprise package of the previous season, Michel Vorm of Swansea whose relatively low points total last year was affected by injuries.

For my first choice keeper I am going to save a few pennies (£1 million actually) and go for the £5.5 million pound Wojciech Szczesney of Arsenal. His points total was also impacted by injury. Assuming he plays more games this season I think his total will challenge those of the £6.5 million Cech and Hart and the £6 million Lloris and de Gea (Spurs and Man U).

For second choice, the temptation is always to save money again by choosing the Crystal Palace reserve keeper who will be cheap as chips but will never trouble the scorers unless there is a horribly unlucky set of circumstances. Sure enough Lewis Price is only £4m. Mind you Julian Speroni, the Palace number 1 is only £4.5m. And he will play regularly. But he is also likely to concede a lot. I want someone who will play, in case I need him, who will play behind a reasonable, possibly improving defence and who has a track record. I am going for Vorm at £5m. I may revisit that decision if I find myself scrabbling for the odd £0.5m but that will only buy me newly promoted keepers or second string ones.

So Szczesney and Vorm it is.

Of course there is a downside to choosing the Arsenal goalkeeper. It means I can only have another two Arsenal players in my squad.

Real Wrexhamcelery

I have set up my Real Wrexhamcelery team. The intent is to only use players who have played for either Chelsea (which is where the celery part of the name comes from - an obscure word association with Chelsea that is lost in the mists of time despite the risqué song that is sung by the faithful) or Wrexham. However I am still two defenders short. So for the time being I have substituted the two highest scoring defenders from last year, Leighton Baines of Everton and Patrice Evra of Manchester United, but my rule is that they will always be on the bench behind the other players.

My goalkeepers are Ben Foster (WBA) and John Ruddy (Norwich) both of whom have been on loan at Wrexham. I thought there may have been some competition when Ross Turnbull left Chelsea, but he has gone outside the Premiership to Doncaster. Foster is my number one because I see WBA conceding fewer goals this year.

The only three defenders I can actually select are Glen Johnson (Liverpool), Robert Huth (Stoke) and Neil Taylor (Swansea). Taylor was a Wrexham regular.

I had to make choices in Midfield as there were seven players available. So I decided to go for the five highest point scorers from last year. Initially this gave me Jon Walters (Stoke), Damien Duff (Fulham), Steve Sidwell (Fulham), Joe Allen (Liverpool) and Joe Cole (West Ham). Excluded were Scott Parker (Spurs) and Scott Sinclair (Man City). However, the 3 players from one team rule scuppered Allen who I had to replace with Parker.

There are only 3 strikers available and they are Sturridge (Liverpool), Borini (Liverpool), Anelka (WBA).

As I am limited to 3 defenders I have to play either 3-4-3 or 3-5-2. The player least likely to play is Borini, therefore he will sit on the bench with Ruddy, Baines and Evra.

Sturridge will be captain as he is the probable highest scorer. Walters as VC.

I have £11.5 million to spare.

Bring it on.

Wrexham and Chelsea

For a bit more of a challenge, last year I set up a second team consisting of only ex-Chelsea and Wrexham players.

I found that I had a limited choice of goalkeepers, just two in fact, Foster and Ruddy.

There was a wide if not especially high scoring selection of midfield players including Parker, Duff, Sinclair, Wright-Phillips, Walters, Joe Cole.

Strikers included Lukaku (loan players count), Sturridge (after January), Carlton Cole, Borini

But defenders were a struggle. Initially there were only 5. Gallas, Huth, Glen Johnson, Bosingwa and Neil Taylor. When Taylor was injured early in the season, it restricted selection even further, a situation that was barely improved when Ben Haim turned up at QPR.

Ad this year is even worse for defenders. Currently there is only Johnson, Huth and Taylor. There is a possibility that Boulahrouz will sign for West Ham, but that will still leave me one short. I will have to improvise. Last year I nearly went with Anton Ferdinand for a laugh. This year it could be Rio.

And so it begins

I have some form with Fantasy Football.

Several years ago I won a competition run by Corinthian, the people who used to make the small plastic statuettes of Premiership and International players. My prize was to be immortalised as a small plastic statuette in a Chelsea kit.

Three years ago I won a work based league and won a few bob.

Two years ago I won a league run by a group on LinkedIn.

Last year I was rubbish. I tried to use my previously successful tactics, and it all went horribly wrong. I have no idea why. So this year I thought I would record my thinking week by week in an attempt to bring some additional focus to my thought processes. If I attempt to record my decisions and justify them in a blog, then it will make me think about them in more depth in order to avoid looking a complete idiot.

I have created a team but I am not yet happy with it. There are many factors to consider. Players who last year were good value are significantly more expensive this year. Last years's  bargain buy was Michu. This year he is more expensive. The search is on for the new Michu. But of course that is very difficult because you need to know about the form of the large number of imports coming in to the Premiership and in addition to that, you have to work out who will be successful in English football. What a nightmare.

In the past my approach has been to load my back 5 with players from the top 5 clubs, Man U, Man C, Chelsea, Arsenal, and either Spurs or Liverpool. This is to minimise point loss and if you can pick the player who will pick up a few goals like Ivanovic then happy days. Anyone with Patrice Evra last year got a pleasant surprise as he scored an unlikely number of goals as well as playing in the champion defence. He's unlikely to do that again.

In midfield I look for a combination of goals and assists. I also try to be mindful of yellow cards especially as suspensions are a real pain to have to select around. Two years ago Bale was a revelation and last year was probably still worth the extra money. Will that be the case this year? If he stays.

In attack I look for an expensive proven scorer, a lesser second striker and a bargain buy who will play fewer games.

It is not easy.

But it is fun.